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NEVERENDING ♾️ The NEVERENDING Political Discussion Thread

Lede from an article in today's Washington Post:

Donald Trump went viral with a carefully staged photo op at McDonalds, an apparent meditation about a golfing legend’s genitalia and crass insults at a charity banquet. He has dominated headlines after issuing dark threats, including deploying the military against the “enemy from within”; repeatedly declined to say he would accept the results of the election; and delivered long, roundabout speeches and an impromptu 39-minute dance session.
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I will say this: he is brilliant at drawing the focus to himself, commanding the spotlight, sucking every last ounce of oxygen from a room, however you want to put it. Reports are his campaign has been outraised in funding by Harris and the Democrats, he's short of campaign cash (no doubt he's lining his own pockets) and still, the media keep falling over themselves to keep him in the center of the discussion. Same as '16 and same as '20. It is infuriating and going to lead to disaster.
 
With two weeks left, most polls slight lead for Harris, but most of those are within the margin of error. https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/ (2024 Presidential Election Polls: Harris vs. Trump - 270toWin)

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When you look at the 2016 election, Trump never led in the polls.
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Given all of this, who do you think will win in November. Not who do you hope will win, but who do you think will win?
 
I'll be voting in person on Election Day. I usually vote early at the Clerk's office, however my wife and I will be bringing our kids with us to the polling place. Their school is closed for Election Day. I am hopeful that this time when I tell my daughter that this evening this country will move out of the dark ages and FINALLY elect its first woman President. It is beyond past due. I told her the same thing in 2016 and we all know how that worked out. She was only 2 back then and didn't understand, but she does now. Both of my kids see DJT for what he is, a bully. He's actually much worse than that and the damage he and his followers have caused to this Country's institutions and norms are unforgivable. I only hope that we can begin to move past all of it and get back to a point where our elected respected the gravity of their offices and people recognized the basic humanity of their fellow citizens.
 
michaelskis said:
With two weeks left, most polls slight lead for Harris, but most of those are within the margin of error. https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/ (2024 Presidential Election Polls: Harris vs. Trump - 270toWin)

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When you look at the 2016 election, Trump never led in the polls.
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Given all of this, who do you think will win in November. Not who do you hope will win, but who do you think will win?
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Trump has more closet supporters than any presidential candidate in history. He will win.
 
btrage said:
Trump has more closet supporters than any presidential candidate in history. He will win.
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I think that's a very astute observation. The "gender ads" and the "border ads" for Trump are very effective and the Harris campaign has not really done anything to effectively counter them. Whether you like it or not, there are a lot of what I would consider "middle of the road" type voters who are really not down with biological males playing female sports or the government paying for sex change operations or criminals who are not in this country through any legal means not being held accountable for their actions. You can argue about the number of instances of those examples but that's the narrative right now and it's effective to a lot of those on the fence.
 
btrage said:
Trump has more closet supporters than any presidential candidate in history. He will win.
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To be honest, I think that the opposite could also be said. I live in a very red area - my parents put up a Harris Walz sign in their yard and a number of neighbors have commented that they also support Harris, but would be afraid to put a Harris sign up because of how red of an area we are or because they had been lifelong republicans. It will be an interesting few weeks to be sure.
 
dw914er said:
It will be an interesting few weeks to be sure.
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Lots of YouTubers saying there will be civil unrest regardless of the outcome. I’m not so sure about that. I have seen so many goofball insane Tweets over the past two months from both the left and right that I have formed the opinion that social media is now the place trolls go to seemingly catalyze alarmist reactions and incite fear, but beyond that, I don’t envision an impact on everyday life. Having said that, I am not on Truth Social, and if there is a virtual forum that can potentially move people into action, I would place my bets on that platform as the genesis for any kind of crazy to foment post-November 5.
 
Today's Fresh Air interview with the New Yorkers Susan Glasser is downright chilling when she describes the glaring conflicts of interest Trump has engaged in and plans to again. Elon Musk is almost as crazy as the orange one.
 
Wannaplan? said:
Lots of YouTubers saying there will be civil unrest regardless of the outcome. I’m not so sure about that. I have seen so many goofball insane Tweets over the past two months from both the left and right that I have formed the opinion that social media is now the place trolls go to seemingly catalyze alarmist reactions and incite fear, but beyond that, I don’t envision an impact on everyday life. Having said that, I am not on Truth Social, and if there is a virtual forum that can potentially move people into action, I would place my bets on that platform as the genesis for any kind of crazy to foment post-November 5.
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I have thought about this and it worries me. We live in an extremely Red community, but it is very safe. However my wife works at a hospital in a very blue city that also has a violent crime issue. If there are issues in the City, I will be driving her to, and from, her hospital.
 
MD Planner said:
I think that's a very astute observation. The "gender ads" and the "border ads" for Trump are very effective and the Harris campaign has not really done anything to effectively counter them. Whether you like it or not, there are a lot of what I would consider "middle of the road" type voters who are really not down with biological males playing female sports or the government paying for sex change operations or criminals who are not in this country through any legal means not being held accountable for their actions. You can argue about the number of instances of those examples but that's the narrative right now and it's effective to a lot of those on the fence.
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I can't even imagine this being an 'issue' (no doubt affecting TENS, perhaps even HUNDREDS of people!) in a national election. So many more important things impacting the future of our republic are on the line than this issue.
 
btrage said:
Trump has more closet supporters than any presidential candidate in history. He will win.
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He has to get them to the polls and I understand his ground game is a mess. I think Harris will squeak by, with the narrowest of margins, like 49.1 to 48.9 or so...
 
Maister said:
I can't even imagine this being an 'issue' (no doubt affecting TENS, perhaps even HUNDREDS of people!) in a national election. So many more important things impacting the future of our republic are on the line than this issue.
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If you don't think this is an issue you're not paying attention. They may not talk about it much, but a lot of people are very much concerned about these things. Candidates don't get to choose what voters should and should not care about.
 
MD Planner said:
If you don't think this is an issue you're not paying attention. They may not talk about it much, but a lot of people are very much concerned about these things. Candidates don't get to choose what voters should and should not care about.
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They talk about it constantly, but it really shouldn't be a main issue. It's an issue that makes a lot of people uncomfortable, but it doesn't really affect many people other than that. Its still wild to me that so many people are voting on "morality" issues for the most immoral candidate ever.

I think Trump pulls it out. It's so hard this time because I do know a fair number of old Republican's that say they won't vote for either candidate. I don't know that it's significant and you never know whether people actually do what they say. I think more than ever people are keeping their votes close to the vest.

Unfortunately our state is one of 3 states that has no early voting. So I'll get to vote on election day with everyone else. We usually don't have big lines and I don't imagine they'll be any different this year.
 
Maister said:
I can't even imagine this being an 'issue' (no doubt affecting TENS, perhaps even HUNDREDS of people!) in a national election. So many more important things impacting the future of our republic are on the line than this issue.
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I think these issues are on the minds of more people than you realize and I think they are using it as a building block on a bigger message and not just as a standalone issues.


The early voting numbers thus far in our Town have been massive, but we also have several big local elections going on right now as well. However there has been come controversy in the county with people saying that the machines are voting for people who they didn't vote for. Apparently each case was checked and it was user error.

www.fox13memphis.com

Election Commission official clears the air on voting irregularity claims

Early voting is happening now in Tennessee. And a day after claims of votes being changed on machines in Shelby County were reported, the people in charge of elections are trying to clear things up.
www.fox13memphis.com www.fox13memphis.com
 
I don't see a lot of the border/gender ads. I see the R for Harris or Dems for Trump signs. The border isn't really an issue here because we don't see the millions of immigrants invading our state like certain news sources like to proclaim. Then again, we recognize that we used to be south of the border.

Also, can you people in the other swing states do a better job at keeping the candidates and their friends in your state? They all seem to be descending on Arizona now.
 
We don't get much attention for the presidential race except for a few ads on the news we get from Columbus, GA. Those are mostly about Trump being insane, weird, or tired and Kamala giving prisoners gender operations. One odd thing that has started happening in the last week or so is the amount of mail for senate and house races out of state. The people we bought the house from were apparently republican donors. In the last week or two they've received requests from Ted Cruz and a few other bigger names. "If Texas falls, so does the Republic" type stuff.
 
michaelskis said:
On a side note, does anyone actually go to a presidential rally if they are undecided?
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As a starting point, isn’t it a kind of FOMO, an “outing”, or a glad handing set up? My company once had tickets for a candidate rally back in the day, marketing was going around to cubes to see if there were takers, and I said, thanks but no thanks, and it was at that moment I realized that my coworkers knew what team I was on. So yeah, I can tell you from first hand experience that marketing departments get a stack of tickets from the local chamber and/or area political party org to dole out to employees and see what kind of coming out party they have on hand.
 
Wannaplan? said:
As a starting point, isn’t it a kind of FOMO, an “outing”, or a glad handing set up? My company once had tickets for a candidate rally back in the day, marketing was going around to cubes to see if there were takers, and I said, thanks but no thanks, and it was at that moment I realized that my coworkers knew what team I was on. So yeah, I can tell you from first hand experience that marketing departments get a stack of tickets from the local chamber and/or area political party org to dole out to employees and see what kind of coming out party they have on hand.
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That's pretty messed-up. I'd probably quit if my employer did that--it introduces all kinds of HR problems. In fact, discussing politics at the office is specifically frowned upon in our HR policy due to potential for it to damage workplace relationships, create a hostile work environment, and create an unwelcome/non-affirming environment.
 
Wannaplan? said:
As a starting point, isn’t it a kind of FOMO, an “outing”, or a glad handing set up? My company once had tickets for a candidate rally back in the day, marketing was going around to cubes to see if there were takers, and I said, thanks but no thanks, and it was at that moment I realized that my coworkers knew what team I was on. So yeah, I can tell you from first hand experience that marketing departments get a stack of tickets from the local chamber and/or area political party org to dole out to employees and see what kind of coming out party they have on hand.
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My last two jobs (public), I've either been "invited" to a Trump rally or multiple republican town halls. If I asked I would've been told that it was completely optional, but just asking if you have to go to something creates issues. Luckily, I was able to claim a real conflict for the rally. I will usually go to the town halls. Most of those are pretty tame. The politicians will release most of their tickets to friends or supporters and then put a minimal amount to the general public. They're more "rah-rah" than actual information or discussion.
 
michaelskis said:
So another former Trump associate is sounding the alarm…





On a side note, does anyone actually go to a presidential rally if they are undecided? All of these speeches are effective preaching to the choir.
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bureaucrat#3 said:
My last two jobs (public), I've either been "invited" to a Trump rally or multiple republican town halls. If I asked I would've been told that it was completely optional, but just asking if you have to go to something creates issues. Luckily, I was able to claim a real conflict for the rally. I will usually go to the town halls. Most of those are pretty tame. The politicians will release most of their tickets to friends or supporters and then put a minimal amount to the general public. They're more "rah-rah" than actual information or discussion.
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These events are, for sure,...

Raphael Warnock GIF by Election 2020
 
I thought the point of the rally was to get your base fired up and go vote. It's not like it's going to change the mind of an undecided voter. By now, you know what the candidate stands for. What are you undecided on?
 
DVD said:
I thought the point of the rally was to get your base fired up and go vote. It's not like it's going to change the mind of an undecided voter. By now, you know what the candidate stands for. What are you undecided on?
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This. No person changes their mind because of a rally.
 
michaelskis said:
On a side note, does anyone actually go to a presidential rally if they are undecided? All of these speeches are effective preaching to the choir.
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The whole concept of American political campaigning is completely asinine.

I've maintained for quite a while that there is a reason the American Constitution has not generally been replicated by others, with most instead choosing a parliamentary democracy, publicly-funded campaigns or campaigns with significant funding guardrails, etc.

The level of flat-out lying in campaigns is pretty stunning at this point, and that they openly admit to it. This is what happens when the whole campaign/political industry adopts an effectively nihilistic approach devoid of even the most basic ethics.
 
michaelskis said:
With two weeks left, most polls slight lead for Harris, but most of those are within the margin of error. https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/ (2024 Presidential Election Polls: Harris vs. Trump - 270toWin)

View attachment 63477

When you look at the 2016 election, Trump never led in the polls.
View attachment 63476


Given all of this, who do you think will win in November. Not who do you hope will win, but who do you think will win?
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I think most polls try to model the likelihood of who will vote and factor that into the responses. In 2016 the fervor of Trump voters was not given enough credit in those models. I think this year the fervor of young voters is not factored into the models accurately. Historically as a group they are less likely to vote than other age groups. I think this year they're mad as hell (particularly on issues that directly affect them such as reproductive choice and other gender issues) and intent on voting. This will favor Harris. In states that are Project 2025 test beds like Georgia, Florida and Texas, we're already seeing the negative impact of restrictions on reproductive healthcare and I wouldn't be surprised if the backlash turns one or both of those blue. If Trump loses Texas, no amount of swing state coverage can overcome that.
 
Suburb Repairman said:
The whole concept of American political campaigning is completely asinine.

I've maintained for quite a while that there is a reason the American Constitution has not generally been replicated by others, with most instead choosing a parliamentary democracy, publicly-funded campaigns or campaigns with significant funding guardrails, etc.

The level of flat-out lying in campaigns is pretty stunning at this point, and that they openly admit to it. This is what happens when the whole campaign/political industry adopts an effectively nihilistic approach devoid of even the most basic ethics.
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We should switch to parliamentary system, with prime minister and fast track elections.
 
Suburb Repairman said:
That's pretty messed-up. I'd probably quit if my employer did that--it introduces all kinds of HR problems. In fact, discussing politics at the office is specifically frowned upon in our HR policy due to potential for it to damage workplace relationships, create a hostile work environment, and create an unwelcome/non-affirming environment.
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You would not like it here. We have a number of people who had been very involved with the local GOP group, and many anti democrat/pro MAGA comments. There are a few closeted liberal leaning people here keeping a low profile. I just try to offer more global comments that are generally accepted by most, and without the lens of one side or another, prevents the partisan/tribalism response.

SlaveToTheGrind said:
This. No person changes their mind because of a rally.
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Exactly. Even the people who walked out of Trumps rallies early because of the continued rambling or the awkward music/dancing are still going to vote for him.
 
I voted today. They gave me a choice of a paper ballot or an electronic ballot (I choose electronic). She said they were the same ballot & counted the same, which confused me for a second. At least our county knows there's some election deniers in the area and are trying to accommodate everyone.
 
dw914er said:
You would not like it here. We have a number of people who had been very involved with the local GOP group, and many anti democrat/pro MAGA comments. There are a few closeted liberal leaning people here keeping a low profile. I just try to offer more global comments that are generally accepted by most, and without the lens of one side or another, prevents the partisan/tribalism response.
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Heavily red state, here. Politics is openly discussed in the workplace and rarely will a blue vocalize their thoughts.
 
tRump called into JD's Town Hall talk on NewsNation to ask a question.


His question:

How brilliant is Donal J tRump?






Let that marinate in your head for a while.
 
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