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NEVERENDING ♾️ The NEVERENDING Political Discussion Thread

michaelskis said:
Lets play a game of what if...

Several local economists, including one that has gotten it right almost every year for the past 15, predict that we will have a significant economic downturn the second half of 2024 and corporations will need to restructure and layoff staff due to costs. They cite everything from increase product and shipping costs, to health insurance costs, to the effects of inflation, to increased staffing costs.

IF this becomes reality, who do you think wins the election?


I firmly believed that if the Democrats nominate a more centrist (and younger) candidate in stead of sticking with Biden, they would blow everyone else out of the water, and that includes Trump...
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A lot of "experts" have been predicting a full blown recession for almost 2 years now. Eventually someone will be right but the economy as we traditionally know it has changed drastically. You never had high inflation, low unemployment like we've seen. There are things you can do in the short-term (like drastically cut taxes) but eventually you have to pay the piper which is how people get elected but they don't stay elected that way. So basically I'm saying I have no freaking idea how the economy will or will not impact the election.

I find it beyond amusing that the party that espouses equality and inclusiveness to the point of hysteria is behind the oldest white guy to ever run for president. I honestly don't think he's capable, both physically and mentally for another 4 years. The fact that no one has risen in the Democratic Party to be a viable option should be what keeps up the party faithful at night. Harris has been an utter failure and is essentially MIA on all issues. These last three years would have been perfect to groom her for the presidency by having her lead on the issues that matter to people. There has been no serious work on immigration, criminal justice etc. Just finger pointing as usual so the lines of division keep getting deeper and the distrust keeps growing. I don't think we've even scratched the surface of how bad it's going to get in this country.
 
MD Planner said:
I find it beyond amusing that the party that espouses equality and inclusiveness to the point of hysteria is behind the oldest white guy to ever run for president. I honestly don't think he's capable, both physically and mentally for another 4 years. The fact that no one has risen in the Democratic Party to be a viable option should be what keeps up the party faithful at night. Harris has been an utter failure and is essentially MIA on all issues. These last three years would have been perfect to groom her for the presidency by having her lead on the issues that matter to people. There has been no serious work on immigration, criminal justice etc. Just finger pointing as usual so the lines of division keep getting deeper and the distrust keeps growing. I don't think we've even scratched the surface of how bad it's going to get in this country.
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I try to shy away from the conspiracy theories about Biden appointing someone else VP and then resigning, but honestly that would likely be the best case scenario for the US. The stable on both sides is fairly weak right now, because we have the oldest generation ever running our country (into the ground).

We need a generational shift, term limits, and then a Presidential reset. None of those things are happening in 2024. My guess is Biden sticks it out, barely wins, and the D's win the house, and R's win the Senate. We see a lot of nothing for another 4 years until we actually see some positive changes in 2028 when the electorate no longer matters, as the R's cannot win without moderating their crazy social issue wars.

I say all that to say who knows. The economy is not like any we have ever had in the past. The world is facing challenges that it has never faced before. And we sit with a bunch of 80 year olds running the show. Good times.
 
Hink said:
I try to shy away from the conspiracy theories about Biden appointing someone else VP and then resigning, but honestly that would likely be the best case scenario for the US. The stable on both sides is fairly weak right now, because we have the oldest generation ever running our country (into the ground).

We need a generational shift, term limits, and then a Presidential reset. None of those things are happening in 2024. My guess is Biden sticks it out, barely wins, and the D's win the house, and R's win the Senate. We see a lot of nothing for another 4 years until we actually see some positive changes in 2028 when the electorate no longer matters, as the R's cannot win without moderating their crazy social issue wars.

I say all that to say who knows. The economy is not like any we have ever had in the past. The world is facing challenges that it has never faced before. And we sit with a bunch of 80 year olds running the show. Good times.
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Everyone should read the fiction book 2030 by Albert Brooks. It was quite prescient with its near future predictions about the US in 2030. It was written in 2011.
 
michaelskis said:
Lets play a game of what if...

Several local economists, including one that has gotten it right almost every year for the past 15, predict that we will have a significant economic downturn the second half of 2024 and corporations will need to restructure and layoff staff due to costs. They cite everything from increase product and shipping costs, to health insurance costs, to the effects of inflation, to increased staffing costs.

IF this becomes reality, who do you think wins the election?


I firmly believed that if the Democrats nominate a more centrist (and younger) candidate in stead of sticking with Biden, they would blow everyone else out of the water, and that includes Trump...
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I agree, but there's almost zero chance of that happening.

MD Planner said:
A lot of "experts" have been predicting a full blown recession for almost 2 years now. Eventually someone will be right but the economy as we traditionally know it has changed drastically. You never had high inflation, low unemployment like we've seen. There are things you can do in the short-term (like drastically cut taxes) but eventually you have to pay the piper which is how people get elected but they don't stay elected that way. So basically I'm saying I have no freaking idea how the economy will or will not impact the election.

I find it beyond amusing that the party that espouses equality and inclusiveness to the point of hysteria is behind the oldest white guy to ever run for president. I honestly don't think he's capable, both physically and mentally for another 4 years. The fact that no one has risen in the Democratic Party to be a viable option should be what keeps up the party faithful at night. Harris has been an utter failure and is essentially MIA on all issues. These last three years would have been perfect to groom her for the presidency by having her lead on the issues that matter to people. There has been no serious work on immigration, criminal justice etc. Just finger pointing as usual so the lines of division keep getting deeper and the distrust keeps growing. I don't think we've even scratched the surface of how bad it's going to get in this country.
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Yeah, Harris is even more unpopular than Biden.
 
Hink said:
I try to shy away from the conspiracy theories about Biden appointing someone else VP and then resigning, but honestly that would likely be the best case scenario for the US. The stable on both sides is fairly weak right now, because we have the oldest generation ever running our country (into the ground).

We need a generational shift, term limits, and then a Presidential reset. None of those things are happening in 2024. My guess is Biden sticks it out, barely wins, and the D's win the house, and R's win the Senate. We see a lot of nothing for another 4 years until we actually see some positive changes in 2028 when the electorate no longer matters, as the R's cannot win without moderating their crazy social issue wars.

I say all that to say who knows. The economy is not like any we have ever had in the past. The world is facing challenges that it has never faced before. And we sit with a bunch of 80 year olds running the show. Good times.
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I have come to grips with the fact that we may never have a President from my generation. We will simply be forgotten about and skipped over, AGAIN. Which is completely on brand for Gen X. The only possibilities on the Democratic side I can think of are Gavin Newsom or Cory Booker. I don't think much about the GOP side. Because. Crazy. People.
 
estromberg said:
I have come to grips with the fact that we may never have a President from my generation. We will simply be forgotten about and skipped over, AGAIN. Which is completely on brand for Gen X. The only possibilities on the Democratic side I can think of are Gavin Newsom or Cory Booker. I don't think much about the GOP side. Because. Crazy. People.
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This is pervasive. Generation skips have happened in most professional organizations as well because boomers will not let the F go, and Millinnials watched that happen and are like F that.
 
estromberg said:
I have come to grips with the fact that we may never have a President from my generation. We will simply be forgotten about and skipped over, AGAIN. Which is completely on brand for Gen X. The only possibilities on the Democratic side I can think of are Gavin Newsom or Cory Booker. I don't think much about the GOP side. Because. Crazy. People.
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Gretchen Whitmer has decent cred in my opinion for a D nom in 2028+...and she's middle GenX (born late 1971).
 
Re: The economy...

There is a saying in economics that "expansions don't die of old age" which basically means that when the economy is growing, you need some sort of shock to cause a recession (not just a slowing of the growth). IIRC, prior to 2020 we had been in the longest period of q/q expansion on record. There are a few highly-regarded forecasts I follow very closely and none of them were predicting any sort of recession before the pandemic but there were always risks to the growth that were difficult to model such as spikes in energy prices, weather/natural disasters, global unrest. Looking back through the stack of forecasts I have sitting here on my desk going back to 2005, nobody ever had "global pandemic" as one of their significant risk factors... and nobody had "collapse/implosion of the housing market" listed as a risk factor before 2008, except maybe that one guy in The Big Short!

Fast forward to the recession of 2020 and we were in and out of it in pretty quick time. Since then we've seen steady (if not always robust) growth in GDP and employment even with the shock of the war in Ukraine and spikes in energy prices and record inflation (and our inflation here in the U.S. is a fraction of what most of western Europe and the Eurozone has been experiencing) and even an insurrection in the nation's capital!

I guess my point is that there are always some economists out there forecasting a recession but if we've made it through the last year+ without dipping into one, I don't put much credence into those forecasts unless they're also predicting some sort of extraneous shock to the global system that's going to cause said recession. Will the situation in Israel grow to the point that it effects markets enough to push us into a recession? Will there be another COVID surge or some other global pandemic powerful enough to shut down the economy again soon? Will the war in Ukraine spill over into the rest of Europe? I doubt it on all accounts, but anything is possible.

I wouldn't be surprised to see GDP growth begin to slow significantly over the next few quarters, but I haven't seen enough of the economists I follow forecast a recession for me to be concerned.
 
I try to like Joe B much as I can for a guy who rammed Clarence Thomas down our throats in '91.

Also Joe hails from Delaware, haven of the credit card companies that sneer at Elizabeth Warren's polite request for a contract that an ordinary person can read and understand.

How can the office of VP groom anyone for the top job?

Not since Gerald Ford has there been a viable candidate cultured there, and he was drafted despite his TBI from playing too many football games at Michigan
 
MD Planner said:
A lot of "experts" have been predicting a full blown recession for almost 2 years now. Eventually someone will be right but the economy as we traditionally know it has changed drastically. You never had high inflation, low unemployment like we've seen. There are things you can do in the short-term (like drastically cut taxes) but eventually you have to pay the piper which is how people get elected but they don't stay elected that way. So basically I'm saying I have no freaking idea how the economy will or will not impact the election.

I find it beyond amusing that the party that espouses equality and inclusiveness to the point of hysteria is behind the oldest white guy to ever run for president. I honestly don't think he's capable, both physically and mentally for another 4 years. The fact that no one has risen in the Democratic Party to be a viable option should be what keeps up the party faithful at night. Harris has been an utter failure and is essentially MIA on all issues. These last three years would have been perfect to groom her for the presidency by having her lead on the issues that matter to people. There has been no serious work on immigration, criminal justice etc. Just finger pointing as usual so the lines of division keep getting deeper and the distrust keeps growing. I don't think we've even scratched the surface of how bad it's going to get in this country.
Click to expand...
I'm seeing Trump in 2024, and that's a painful, painful realization because I don't think there will be much of a democracy left after he gets another 4 years. People are big mad about inflation and it won't take much to scare people about a recession even if there aren't signs of one showing by 2024.

I think Biden has been doing great policy-wise, but very quietly. That isn't winning over any undecideds and the loud roar of identity politics isn't helping any either.
 
Faust_Motel said:
I'm seeing Trump in 2024, and that's a painful, painful realization because I don't think there will be much of a democracy left after he gets another 4 years. People are big mad about inflation and it won't take much to scare people about a recession even if there aren't signs of one showing by 2024.

I think Biden has been doing great policy-wise, but very quietly. That isn't winning over any undecideds and the loud roar of identity politics isn't helping any either.
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30+ years of consistent mediocre civics education being taught by football coaches reaching its inevitable conclusion.
 
1697113640269.png
 
Most people are easily influenced by media. When we lost the FCC "fairness doctrine" for licensing we lost a lot of the territory of information's highway to those with extreme viewpoints, those that put up the loudest and brightest billboards, the scariest warnings. (George Saunders' essay, "The Braindead Megaphone" is a colorful expression of that practice.)

I think that all of us are way more susceptible than we know to what Carl Jung called "collective consciousness". Mass mentality directs people's actions more than they know. It is so ironic that, in the land of Western thought, where every knight leaving Arthur's table in search of the Grail had to start where there is no path and the brush is thickest, so many of those knights today are easily fooled by thrice told tales from churls they have never met.
 
fringe said:
Most people are easily influenced by media... Mass mentality directs people's actions more than they know...
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Your post triggered my "cognitive dissonance" radar: 1) We're told almost daily that today's media landscape is fractured, 2) We are told over and over again that we are a divided country, and 3) It's all "fake news" and part of the "lamestream" media. Tell me, what am I missing? What is this "collective consciousness" thing that you are referring to?
 
...no intention to go dweeby on you, Wannaplan. Mass mentality creates a lot of mass action. Conspiracy theories are like urban legends, tales told by a few that know a few that know some who saw.

Just like almost all religious scripture.
 
Wannaplan? said:
Your post triggered my "cognitive dissonance" radar: 1) We're told almost daily that today's media landscape is fractured, 2) We are told over and over again that we are a divided country, and 3) It's all "fake news" and part of the "lamestream" media. Tell me, what am I missing? What is this "collective consciousness" thing that you are referring to?
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We're told these things to distract us from what is really going on.
 
Because it was brought up I had to look up congressional membership based on generations.

27 Silent generation 78-95 year olds
230 Boomers 59-77 yo
144 Gen X 43-58 yo
31 Millennials 27-42 yo

Senate is
11 Silent
68 Boomer
20 Gen X
1 Millennial

Kind of sad.
 
I'm a Boomer. We're not likely to get outta the way for a long time. I apologize to the Gen X and Millennial kids coming up behind us.
 
DVD said:
Because it was brought up I had to look up congressional membership based on generations.

27 Silent generation 78-95 year olds
230 Boomers 59-77 yo
144 Gen X 43-58 yo
31 Millennials 27-42 yo

Senate is
11 Silent
68 Boomer
20 Gen X
1 Millennial

Kind of sad.
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Super interesting. I would wonder what the leadership breakdown is, as I assume it is all Silent Generation. Setting the limit at 65 would help our Country A LOT.

House
6.25% Silent
53.24% Boomers
33.33% Gen X
7.17% Millennials

The senate being 79% Silent or Boomer says A LOT. Age based restrictions would get the numbers of Gen X and Millennials up substantially.

Why isn't this being pushed through in legislation? What would it take to put an age bracket on the House and Senate? An amendment?
 
Hink said:
Super interesting. I would wonder what the leadership breakdown is, as I assume it is all Silent Generation. Setting the limit at 65 would help our Country A LOT.

House
6.25% Silent
53.24% Boomers
33.33% Gen X
7.17% Millennials

The senate being 79% Silent or Boomer says A LOT. Age based restrictions would get the numbers of Gen X and Millennials up substantially.

Why isn't this being pushed through in legislation? What would it take to put an age bracket on the House and Senate? An amendment?
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It would take a constitutional amendment. There's a floor for age, so it makes sense to establish a ceiling.

I used to be anti term limit, but I'm increasingly comfortable with it provided it supports development of reasonable parliamentary and policy expertise (max 3 terms/18 years in Senate; max 9 terms/18 years in House). I also wonder if the House should transition to staggered 4 year terms to get them out of constant campaign mode.
 
fringe said:
religious scripture
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Two things:

1) There are so many people that exact their own interpretation out from the religious texts and end up doing their own thing, despite the fear of doctrinal wrath.

2) More and more people are leaving organized religion and are identifying as religiously unaffiliated.

I do get what you are saying. However, I remain skeptical on the notion that there is some kind of metastasizing Mass Mentality that is a threat. But, if you actually mean there is an unthinking out there in society, then yes, I get your vibe. People are easily fooled, for sure. But in the 21st century, I am not yet convinced that there is some form of societal connective tissue to all that unthinking foolishness. I am not seeing the form of it, and my sense is that it is formless. But that's just me and the filters I apply to the world as I experience it. Your mileage may vary.
 
Wannaplan? said:
Two things:

1) There are so many people that exact their own interpretation out from the religious texts and end up doing their own thing, despite the fear of doctrinal wrath.

2) More and more people are leaving organized religion and are identifying as religiously unaffiliated.

I do get what you are saying. However, I remain skeptical on the notion that there is some kind of metastasizing Mass Mentality that is a threat. But, if you actually mean there is an unthinking out there in society, then yes, I get your vibe. People are easily fooled, for sure. But in the 21st century, I am not yet convinced that there is some form of societal connective tissue to all that unthinking foolishness. I am not seeing the form of it, and my sense is that it is formless. But that's just me and the filters I apply to the world as I experience it. Your mileage may vary.
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...not posting about threats. Mass mentality is a fact. Part of what Jung might call the structure of the mind.

I don't mean to be provocative.

Your avatar/handle tells me you steer clear of doctrines and rulebooks.

"...look out, kid. They keep it all hid..."---B. Dylan

"...if I thought it would do any good,
You know I surely would,
stand on the rock where Moses stood..."---traditional blues song
 
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mendelman said:
Except...no functioning government is not really that great...right?

Right...?

5c7lwq.png
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I would argue that a government doing absolutely nothing might actually be better than a government functioning with some of those extreme right-wing MAGA types at the helm who seem to actively be trying to sabotage things and gum up the works investigating the "Biden Crime Family" :r: and obstructing just about anything of consequence.
 
WSU MUP Student said:
I would argue that a government doing absolutely nothing might actually be better than a government functioning with some of those extreme right-wing MAGA types at the helm who seem to actively be trying to sabotage things and gum up the works investigating the "Biden Crime Family" :r: and obstructing just about anything of consequence.
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Perhaps.

But our status quo is not that great regardless and there are literal government functions (budget) that are a core, mandatory responsibility of Congress to do for the status quo to even operate.
 
Your ideas of a functioning government and demanding congress do something basic will just lead to them investigating you for voter fraud or that one time your shoplifted something as a kid. Whatever they can get you on to take you down.
 
DVD said:
Your ideas of a functioning government and demanding congress do something basic will just lead to them investigating you for voter fraud or that one time your shoplifted something as a kid. Whatever they can get you on to take you down.
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Lets Fight About It GIF
 
I have not noticed much discussion about the conflict with Israel and Hamas. I have to admit that I don't have a massive understanding of this region of the word and how the religions and politics are situated outside the reality of there being almost constant conflict within the general region. Locally, we have seen pro-Palestine protests and pro-Israel demonstrations that have become very heated and it appears that the history of control of the Gaza Strip is one that has deep roots.

What are your thoughts and feelings on this situation? Which side do you sympathize with and why?

Moderator note:

If we discuss this topic, please let's tread lightly. This is potential internet targeting and troll fodder
 
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michaelskis said:
I have not noticed much discussion about the conflict with Israel and Hamas. I have to admit that I don't have a massive understanding of this region of the word and how the religions and politics are situated outside the reality of there being almost constant conflict within the general region. Locally, we have seen pro-Palestine protests and pro-Israel demonstrations that have become very heated and it appears that the history of control of the Gaza Strip is one that has deep roots.

What are your thoughts and feelings on this situation? Which side do you sympathize with and why?

Moderator note:

If we discuss this topic, please let's tread lightly. This is potential internet troll food
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140dcefb86bf23d20ec4651c57dfef4b.jpg
 
Suburb Repairman said:
I'm from Texas... I would prefer my state government not function. But point taken obviously.
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In AL, it is almost always better when they are not in session. Every year we wait to see what profession got inconvenienced by getting a business license or zoning approval and convinces the state to remove them from any local regulation.
 
michaelskis said:
Moderator note:

If we discuss this topic, please let's tread lightly. This is potential internet targeting and troll fodder
Click to expand...
I understand the concern, but I am genuinely curious.

I see two different groups who have experienced anger over what is happening and I would like to know how different people feel about the situation. If needed, PM me to express your thoughts on the subject. I won’t share your position on the matter.
 
I can see some parallels to Tet in Vietnam, when a massive assault followed growing opposition to US policy there. I think Iran certainly is a supporter of Hamas and may have chosen the moment while the US is in an internal standoff and cannot form a government, just like some bananas republic, speaking of which, I read that a banana empire scion won the presidency of Equator.
 
michaelskis said:
I saw the maps that the Republicans in NC submitted for redistricting. At what point will people stop playing politics and submit maps that are not gerrymandered.

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There was a good article out this past week about how Republicans are attempting to gerrymander. Basically pushing until the court is forced to pick an option. The whole thing about hiring attorneys to do the plan, so any decision making and process is privileged is despicable.
 
And Jordan fails a 3rd round of voting for the speakership AND a GOP straw poll. Part of me just wants some of the moderate Republicans to go ham and vote for Jeffries.

Staring down the barrel of another government shut down.
 
kjel said:
And Jordan fails a 3rd round of voting for the speakership AND a GOP straw poll. Part of me just wants some of the moderate Republicans to go ham and vote for Jeffries.

Staring down the barrel of another government shut down.
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He's officially out now, of course. However, this does present the opportunity for the GOP to consider someone new. Hopefully an experienced legislator who has worked hard over many years to build consensus, fundraise, and compromise in order to get the work of the legislative branch done.
 
Maister said:
He's officially out now, of course. However, this does present the opportunity for the GOP to consider someone new. Hopefully an experienced legislator who has worked hard over many years to build consensus, fundraise, and compromise in order to get the work of the legislative branch done.
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Do you think there is any republican that would receive any votes from democrats?

If not, I don't think they would be looking for someone who would compromise outside of their own party.
 
michaelskis said:
Do you think there is any republican that would receive any votes from democrats?

If not, I don't think they would be looking for someone who would compromise outside of their own party.
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There's potential GOP candidates some dems would support for speaker - Liz Cheney comes to mind.
 
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