I think social conservatives are pretty much out the door. I think the real battle is the Libertarian wing of the party. Rand Paul is pushing the agenda for more laissez faire approach to war, social policy, and regulations. He isn't a friend to big business or the wall street machine that helps run the GOP. He and the libertarians are what are going to crack the GOP in two, if they have their way.
I think the most interesting part is that if the GOP doesn't do something big (which many conservatives don't believe they need to do), the demographics are going to all but assure they can't win in the future. The strategy of "Do nothing" will in the end be their downfall.
Of the three ways forward - democrats vision, republicans vision, and stay the course... two out of three means the GOP won't get their way. I think the mid term elections will be interesting. If the D's win more seats in the House it is a telling sign, not just of the policy decisions of Obama and the D's, but of the changing landscape for the GOP.