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Vehicles / bikes 🏍 The future of electric vehicles

michaelskis

michaelskis

Sawdust Producer
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There were many that were betting on EVs to completely take over the automotive industry in a relatively short time. However the dynamics have shifted for a wide range of reasons.

At one point Tesla was the darling child of the EV world, but the more Musk got involved with Trump, that brand took a hit. Similarly, a combination of governmental regulations, grants, and rebates also changed.

In Western TN, Ford was in the process of constructing Blue Oval City, a plant that was going to produce the new Ford Lighting EV trucks. But this week, they pivoted saying that the plant will now be fore gas powered trucks siting several factors.
www.actionnews5.com

Major changes coming to BlueOval City

Major changes are coming to BlueOval City in Haywood County.
www.actionnews5.com www.actionnews5.com

My question is what's next? Personally, I was excited about the transition and was anticipating getting an EV for my next vehicle. However discovering a lack of charging stations in my area, the time to charge when I did find one, and the mileage range on a single charge now makes me wonder if I will get another gas powered when I change up from what I have now.

What are your thoughts? Do you think EV will take over and if so, how long in the future? What limitations do you see in regards to infrastructure and market to support a transition?
 
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meh. I plan to get through the remainder of my full-time working life using ICE or hybrid cars and in about 15 years get to live in a place where we can be very car light or car free.

ICE, hybrid, EV, etc. is all just the same thing with a different hat. Too many cars and too much of our US built environment designed for, effectively, only automobile transport.

meme_ICE-EV traffic.jpg
 
DVD said:
I'll think about an electric car when I see a 10 year old electric car still on the road with decent battery life.
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If GM didnt destroy all the EV1s, there would probably still be a few still roaming California, no smog needed! First gen Honda insight holds up well too. Other than that, yah nah.
 
I said this "all or nothing" approach that the last administration pretty much tried to force was a mistake and I was right. You simply cannot have a sea change like that and it be successful. And at the end of the day the infrastructure and the technology are not there to support it on a nationwide level.

I'll also say this. I'm a 30 year veteran planner. I get it. I understand sense of place and civic spaces and designing for pedestrians. And we can certainly do a better job integrating true multi-modal design into most projects. But the reality is we live in a VERY BIG country. American is not Europe where you can literally be in multiple countries in a day by train or car. Personal vehicles are a necessity here. We as a people like to go places and we also like our individual space and freedom. I take advantage of mass transit often when I visit a big city but when you look across our landscape how many places is that truly viable? People like to spread out here. I know I do. I'd work 3 jobs if it meant I wouldn't have to live in multi-family housing as an example.
 
This summer my brother and S-I-L drove their EV from Vermont to Arizona/Nevada/Utah and back without a charging issue anywhere along the trip. It is doable, folks. Time to get away from Trump's fossil fuel fetish and join the rest of the post-peak world.
 
Gedunker said:
This summer my brother and S-I-L drove their EV from Vermont to Arizona/Nevada/Utah and back without a charging issue anywhere along the trip. It is doable, folks. Time to get away from Trump's fossil fuel fetish and join the rest of the post-peak world.
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Can you tell us more about this? How many hours/miles did they drive per day?

Reason I ask is when we go to visit my sister, it is about 550 miles (8 1/2 to 9 hours of drive time). We might stop a couple of times to stretch our legs and let the dogs out, but we don't spend any extended periods of time anywhere. I can't see us being able to do that with an EV.
 
I've got friends with Rivians and Fords. Both have pretty cool systems for trip planning and locating charging stations. I don't really sweat that issue except that there's some big open spaces in Texas full of nothing, and I like to tow things.

American car companies in particular just went fully stupid in how they chose to bring EV to market. Reminds me of how they set themselves up for failure in the 2000s. An EV truck was just an absolutely lousy idea detached from how people use them. They targeted large SUVs and trucks primarily instead of sedans/hatchbacks. And then did catastrophically stupid things like use legendary monikers for the vehicle names to ensure they would polarize people. I actually like the Mach E, but could Ford have been any dumber? Lightning, a legendary performance nameplate? Chevy's new Blazer is actually a great vehicle, but I've long been bothered by them applying that name to a vehicle that couldn't be more different from the original Blazer if it tried.

The other issue was just "over-teching" the new EVs in general, to the point that their interior design and technology became unapproachable (and drove up costs unnecessarily). Some of them also just have shit design overall. I swear the only car companies doing anything remotely daring/interesting the design space right now are Hyundai/Kia/Genesis. And they're gaining market share and improved reputation because of it.

Then projecting EVs like they're the answer for everybody... the marketing really needed to target specific types of buyers and focus on their needs/concerns.

Honestly, I wouldn't buy one now in large part because the technology advancement is happening incredibly fast, you have new companies with unproven reliability records or demonstrated stability/commitment to EV technology, and there's geographic variability in access to charging infrastructure. I would, however, consider LEASING one.

I am, however, a pretty big fan of hybrid technology especially plug-in hybrids. Those it a real sweet spot for especially how my spouse uses her car. And hybrid tech is particularly well-proven, especially all of the heavy licensing of variations on Toyota's system.

My wish? Remove the chicken taxes and import restrictions. Let China into the market. Force American companies to complete. If they can't, they deserve to die. We sit only 19 years removed from bailing them out for failing to compete before.
 
Gedunker said:
This summer my brother and S-I-L drove their EV from Vermont to Arizona/Nevada/Utah and back without a charging issue anywhere along the trip. It is doable, folks. Time to get away from Trump's fossil fuel fetish and join the rest of the post-peak world.
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For me it's not so much the fossil fuel fetish. I'm thinking more about long term ownership. My car happens to be at 24 years old and running strong. Can I get that kind of reliability out of an electric? Anything that needs to be fixed is relatively affordable and easy enough to do.
 
My city has a Tesla as a pool car. I borrowed it for a 6 hour drive to a conference. As someone who likes cars and trying new ones out, it was.... ok. The charging stops through the Columbia Gorge were nice little breaks on my drive and I managed to get through Portland without needing a charger, but on the way back felt I had to stop too much to charge up and got cranky about it. (Maybe I was just tired and wanted to get home). After dropping it off, getting into my fairly new truck with an old school V8 was an archaic change, if not an internal act of "rebellion".

My assigned vehicle for the city is an F150 hybrid... but the electric motor rarely gets engaged and I dont see a difference.

I might be interested in an EV later on, but have no plug in capabilities at my apartment and likely will look for something smaller or a hybrid... to supplement my thirsty truck.
 
I'm currently very happy with my two ICE cars - 2015 Honda Civic and 2002 Lincoln Town Car
 
Suburb Repairman said:
American car companies in particular just went fully stupid in how they chose to bring EV to market. Reminds me of how they set themselves up for failure in the 2000s. An EV truck was just an absolutely lousy idea detached from how people use them. They targeted large SUVs and trucks primarily instead of sedans/hatchbacks. And then did catastrophically stupid things like use legendary monikers for the vehicle names to ensure they would polarize people. I actually like the Mach E, but could Ford have been any dumber? Lightning, a legendary performance nameplate? Chevy's new Blazer is actually a great vehicle, but I've long been bothered by them applying that name to a vehicle that couldn't be more different from the original Blazer if it tried.
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I am impressed with the performance specs of the F-150 lightning and the Mach E. I am with you on the use of the legendary monikers. I think that ford would have been better off to have separate brand for their Ev vehicles. Similar to Chevy's Geo venture from the late 80's and into the 90's to compete with fuel efficient Asian imports.
 
Not a knock on you, OP, but I feel like we have been having this same discussion in the planning world for 20 years. Same with driverless cars, rideshares, etc. There was a huge push in the 2010s to become "EV Ready" and to prioritize development along "EV-charging corridors." APA issuing dire warnings that EV readiness and curb management is something we need to address NOW to handle the onslaught of EVS, ubers and waymos! The only discernible result in my community is that new gas stations now have a couple of spaces dedicated to charging stations.

I love @mendelman's meme above and think it hits the nail right on the head...land use patterns haven't changed for the better. Transportation patterns haven't changed for the better. What are we even doing here? Meanwhile, developers propose ever-expanding parking space dimensions and turning radii so that they can comfortably fit a 20 foot-long electric GMC Sierra with an extended truck bed, dedicating even more land to parking.

Is winter over yet?
 
SteveHarveyOswald said:
Not a knock on you, OP, but I feel like we have been having this same discussion in the planning world for 20 years. Same with driverless cars, rideshares, etc. There was a huge push in the 2010s to become "EV Ready" and to prioritize development along "EV-charging corridors." APA issuing dire warnings that EV readiness and curb management is something we need to address NOW to handle the onslaught of EVS, ubers and waymos! The only discernible result in my community is that new gas stations now have a couple of spaces dedicated to charging stations.

I love @mendelman's meme above and think it hits the nail right on the head...land use patterns haven't changed for the better. Transportation patterns haven't changed for the better. What are we even doing here? Meanwhile, developers propose ever-expanding parking space dimensions and turning radii so that they can comfortably fit a 20 foot-long electric GMC Sierra with an extended truck bed, dedicating even more land to parking.

Is winter over yet?
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No offence taken, but that is kind why I posted it. Transportation patterns would not change and I recognize it. The popularity of getting away from the use of oil was part of the excitement, but it also depends on how the power is generated too.

The reason for the post was because of Ford making a very public change to their direction and it made me wonder if we are going to see a decline in interest in EV vs ICE.

Personally, I would love to have everything be EV and full autonomous optional, but I am starting to question if I am going to see that in my lifetime.
 
DVD said:
For me it's not so much the fossil fuel fetish. I'm thinking more about long term ownership. My car happens to be at 24 years old and running strong. Can I get that kind of reliability out of an electric? Anything that needs to be fixed is relatively affordable and easy enough to do.
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Im right there with you, pushing my hoopdi's from 1996 and 1999 still.

I would love to convert a Ford Fairmont into a full EV build.
 
Planit said:
This is where I am. I'd love to take an older obscure car - like a Renault Dauphine - and do a full EV conversion.
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It would be a deathtrap on modern roads with 5,000lb pickups and SUVs. Maybe as a fun Sunday morning toy, sure, but not as a daily driver.

IMO it feels like the big 3 are sort of giving up on electrification, or at least vastly scaling it back. The numbers don't work without subsidy, and not only is the current administration removing that subsidy (the EV tax credit), they are actively undermining it by messing with CAFE and scaling back the challenging fleet MPG requirements that the Biden administration had put into place. So the rest of the world will continue to shift to EV, while we in the US continue on with a mix of ICE and hybrid and a sprinkling of niche EVs for those who can afford them and can charge at home. It's a bit sad and disheartening that we couldn't get this done as a country, just another example of how we are 'stuck', unable to agree on what a collective positive future should look like and move forward toward it.
 
ICE until oil runs out and the we have bigger problems. Think Mad Max x 100. But without all the hodgepodge of vehicles since there will be no fuel. EV is fine but will not overtake the ICE.
mad max GIF
 
If I got an EV I would want a ~100 mile range small car for around town/adjacent suburbs. It would not be our long distance driver though.

I would consider a Honda e.
 
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The other thing I like to point out is I don't think any company has delivered a vehicle demonstrably better than a Toyota Prius in how it understood the best aligned market for higher efficiency vehicles with some level of electrification. That vehicle has demonstrated consistent excellence through multiple generations, and has a huge amount of utility to it. The latest generation is... dare I say it... actually a bit of fun to drive?!

But I also agree... EVs are nothing more than the same damn traffic problem with less smog, while root cause being built environment goes substantially unaddressed. I know this because there are many, many trips I take with my vehicle that I would love to take with any other form of mobility or transit, but simply can't. I should be able to, but our built environment sucks and our transit sucks.
 
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