michaelskis
Cyburbian
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We are at a turning point in the United States were tomorrow is a bit of an unknown. Population growth has been the fuel that has powered the economic engine for decades, and continues to do so today. But like any engine, when it has no fuel, forward momentum slows, and eventually stops. Depending on how things go with federal policies, we might start to see a national population decline. A lot of it has to do with immigration. The US Census Bureau's projects paint multiple forecasts because the future policies, or desire, to move to the US are unknown at this time.
But even with the most likely outcome, high-desired areas are the only paces that will see a net population increase. People are not moving to and from places at equal rates and more expensive places like CA, IL, and NY are losing population to other states more than gaining.
On top of that, we as a society are not having as many children as we once did, and are no longer reproducing at a rate to replace ourselves. The only ethnic group that exceeds the minimum replacement rate is the Hispanic Population, and those rates are expected to drop below the 2.1 threshold within the next few years. So if it isn't for immigration from other countries, the US will lose population at some point in the next several decades. The only reason it is not sooner is because people are living longer and advancements with longevity are expected to make substantial progress in the next decade. But it won't be immortality.
So that brings us to the question. How will population decline effect our economy, municipalities, and profession? Will our housing crisis shift or can we adapt what we have to accommodate different populations. Instead of large families, there still are projections for additional housing as more and more single person or single parent dwellings become needed. What about the labor market? Sure AI and robotics can help to bridge some of the gap, but we will still need qualified people to do jobs. Thinking about these things are important was we work on long-range plans and development projects. Are we putting things in place that might have a shelf life of a decade, or a century?
As for our profession, this is the one that I am the most sure of. We as planners have always had to change and adapt with technologies, trends, and needs. Sometimes we got it right, sometimes, we got urban renewal... but as a profession, we never stopped changing to the challenges that we face. This won't be any different.
What are your thoughts? How will this population shift change things?
But even with the most likely outcome, high-desired areas are the only paces that will see a net population increase. People are not moving to and from places at equal rates and more expensive places like CA, IL, and NY are losing population to other states more than gaining.
On top of that, we as a society are not having as many children as we once did, and are no longer reproducing at a rate to replace ourselves. The only ethnic group that exceeds the minimum replacement rate is the Hispanic Population, and those rates are expected to drop below the 2.1 threshold within the next few years. So if it isn't for immigration from other countries, the US will lose population at some point in the next several decades. The only reason it is not sooner is because people are living longer and advancements with longevity are expected to make substantial progress in the next decade. But it won't be immortality.
So that brings us to the question. How will population decline effect our economy, municipalities, and profession? Will our housing crisis shift or can we adapt what we have to accommodate different populations. Instead of large families, there still are projections for additional housing as more and more single person or single parent dwellings become needed. What about the labor market? Sure AI and robotics can help to bridge some of the gap, but we will still need qualified people to do jobs. Thinking about these things are important was we work on long-range plans and development projects. Are we putting things in place that might have a shelf life of a decade, or a century?
As for our profession, this is the one that I am the most sure of. We as planners have always had to change and adapt with technologies, trends, and needs. Sometimes we got it right, sometimes, we got urban renewal... but as a profession, we never stopped changing to the challenges that we face. This won't be any different.
What are your thoughts? How will this population shift change things?