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Is there a housing shortage/crisis?

busrider

Cyburbian
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I'm going to preface this by saying that I'm a big time, libertarian-ish YIMBY. I genuinely believe there's a shortage of housing units, esp. multifamily in desirable areas, and it's mainly zoning and other related regulations choking the supply. But I'm noticing a lot of the planners, and planning students in my masters program, don't seem to think this is true. Or if they do...they seem to think we can just fix it with a bunch of public housing/subsidies as opposed to more market based solutions. Or they think there's a shortage of single family homes but not multifamily, which seems unlikely to me. And I notice that a lot of people who are raising alarms about the housing crisis are not planners by training (although some big names like M. Nolan Gray are).

So am I blinded by ideology here? Is there a housing crisis in the US? I know this forum tends to get very practical and local but this is a big picture question that has me doubting my choice to go into planning, because I feel like planning is a big part of the problem if the housing shortage is indeed a real thing.
 
I genuinely believe there's a shortage of housing units, esp. multifamily in desirable areas, and it's mainly zoning and other related regulations choking the supply.

You say this, but you don't say how zoning and other related regulations actually choke the supply. Seems to me you need to learn a thing a two about how markets really work, especially the unique qualities of land and real estate, but as a libertarian, I suppose it is easier for you to blame regulatory involvement as opposed to inherent flaws in the market system. Note, saying you are a NIMBY does not in any way inoculate you here on these boards from us government working types, the bête noire du jour of the anti-regulatory zeitgeist of which we are already keenly aware, even more so since January 20. Don't get me wrong, there are indeed a lot of fairy-dust-thinkers in the planning field, they are but a subset of a diverse ideological spectrum from all walks of life, and in various planning circles, I have observed there is indeed a gap in critical and creative thinking. Will that be your future self? In closing, I do kindly suggest that you suck on a gummy or two in the hopes that you sincerely want to expand your horizons and understanding of the planning profession.
 
The vacancy rate tells the tale, and in my region, a rental vacancy rate flirting with 1% means, yes, there's a crisis. (Ownership vacancy rate isn't much better, but where we really need to get to 5% on rentals, getting up to 3% for ownership would be tolerable).

There are places where zoning/regulation (and process!) is part of the problem, but zoning reform by itself isn't going to bring down the price of lumber and labor, and adding density only brings the price of land down a little. In places like where I work, where new residential requires the creation of new streets (we have infill opportunities too but that won't be enough on its own), the cost of building a new street has more than doubled in the last 5 years. Not really something zoning reform can meaningfully impact.
 
The vacancy rate tells the tale, and in my region, a rental vacancy rate flirting with 1% means, yes, there's a crisis. (Ownership vacancy rate isn't much better, but where we really need to get to 5% on rentals, getting up to 3% for ownership would be tolerable).

There are places where zoning/regulation (and process!) is part of the problem, but zoning reform by itself isn't going to bring down the price of lumber and labor, and adding density only brings the price of land down a little. In places like where I work, where new residential requires the creation of new streets (we have infill opportunities too but that won't be enough on its own), the cost of building a new street has more than doubled in the last 5 years. Not really something zoning reform can meaningfully impact.
Just build ADUs /s.

We've had about six new garage apartments built this year where they're allowed. The cost for these has run between $75,000 to $150,000 for a 600-1000 sq foot unit. Construction costs and financing are the biggest issues we're running into.

I think there are some people who believe that any regulation that limits housing is unreasonable. While most lots might be able to handle multiple units, there still needs to be a framework that handles scale context or character.
 
Just build ADUs /s.

We've had about six new garage apartments built this year where they're allowed. The cost for these has run between $75,000 to $150,000 for a 600-1000 sq foot unit. Construction costs and financing are the biggest issues we're running into.

I think there are some people who believe that any regulation that limits housing is unreasonable. While most lots might be able to handle multiple units, there still needs to be a framework that handles scale context or character.
We've allowed ADUs everywhere for 20 years now and tend to see 5-10/year in a municipality with about 4k total homes. It's great for people who do it but it is like financing a mega home improvement and becoming a landlord all at once which is more than most people seem to want to do.

Statewide density preemptions from a year ago mean we nee to allow 0.2 acre lots where there is water and sewer and up to a 4-plex on those lots. I will say lower density requirements were doing the heavy lifting on managing off-site/context/character impacts before and that density without some added site design requirements (where to put 4-8 cars, buffering, where to put collected trash bins for a 4-plex, etc.) on a 80'x100' lot is a bit much and will tick some neighbors off.
 
I'm in the Phoenix metro. Yes, we have a shortage of housing. I don't think zoning is the problem. It does take some time to get the zoning done and I wouldn't mind a fast track for land we're all pretty sure no one cares if housing gets built there, but remember that zoning is there to protect you and your neighbor. It's all fine until a land fill, strip club, lead battery factory, or burger king is built next door then it's why didn't the city protect us. For some reason a lot of places protest zoning over apartments, but once they're in no one seems to have a problem. So the council should just let those zonings happen and ignore the public, or not, they know their communities. I do hear a lot from builders lobbies who tell me how there is no affordable housing. I should point out they don't build affordable housing. Also the largest cost to housing is not zoning. It's the labor and materials to build it. So I think it's a mix of yes we need more housing, but stop trying to say it's the housing cost if you're not going to make your homes lower cost and yes, apartments get a bad wrap so we should be kinder on their zoning, but I don't know that we need to reform it.

I can throw out a different case, Sedona, Arizona is a tourist destination so housing is overpriced and has a severe shortage because a lot of the housing is bought up and used as air B&B. Arizona doesn't regulate vacation rentals so investors go crazy taking up the housing stock.

Last, look at what the real problem is - at least to me - what is the goal? I think the goal should be at least an affordable apartment for younger generations. That does not exist for many reasons, but I keep hearing how it's the city's fault that there aren't enough apartments, not that the apartments run for more than a house or that every apartment complex is the luxury suite you always wanted. We really need to allow crappy apartments that are just a 1 bedroom with no pool, gym, spa, or whatever.
 
So am I blinded by ideology here? Is there a housing crisis in the US? I know this forum tends to get very practical and local but this is a big picture question that has me doubting my choice to go into planning, because I feel like planning is a big part of the problem if the housing shortage is indeed a real thing.
The problem is that while the answer is "yes, there is a shortage of affordable, attainable housing in the US", the truth is more complicated. Housing is part of the larger ecology. You can think of it as a numbers game, and blame it on zoning, or greed, or whatever you want to, but I don't think it's that simple. Housing, transportation, vehicle culture, capitalist manipulation, race relations, US history, new technology, economics, globalization of those economics - like it or not, generational differences, and human nature to become entrenched in one's own ideas. Everything plays a part in relation to everything else. You can't take a single approach.

The work planners do is messy. It's ugly stuff, man, no lie. And it is admittedly most often thankless, or worse. But the truth that I think I do know, is that if the market was going to fix any of this, it would have happened. You think the market can't find it's way around a few zoning regs? Please. The truth is that this IS the fucking market. It's what the market wants; expensive housing that's hard to get. The market wants a certain percentage of people to be un-housed, so it can sell and rent at a premium. In fact, I believe that the market could give a flying rat's ass if any average citizen ever owned property again. The market is happy for only the most wealthy to be able to own, and then rent those units to the rest of us.

The housing market became an abysmal dump like the rest of the market economy the INSTANT it started getting treated like a market. As long as the US treats housing as a commodity instead of a human right, there will be a housing crisis. The market likes it. Sorry to be a downer.
 
I genuinely believe there's a shortage of housing units, esp. multifamily in desirable areas, and it's mainly zoning and other related regulations choking the supply.
Yes, there is a housing shortage. And yes, zoning is one element of the problem since certain types of development have historically been restricted and the development review process adds time and uncertainty to the process. But, like everything else in life, the answer is far more complex than that. To say zoning reform solves the issue glosses over how different builders anticipate the market, how the lending agencies work with those builders, how insurance agencies work and what types of products they will and will not cover, how buyers have been programmed to desire certain products, lumber and material costs, along with many many other topics. There is no silver bullet problem.
 
I should also point out that zoning is different for every state. California has a long and complicated history with zoning. Houston has no zoning. They both face housing shortages. It's a national problem. The difference, no one cares about Houston because we can't make it a story about zoning and thereby politics. Sometimes it's just market forces.
 
The truth is that this IS the fucking market. It's what the market wants; expensive housing that's hard to get. The market wants a certain percentage of people to be un-housed, so it can sell and rent at a premium.

The housing market became an abysmal dump like the rest of the market economy the INSTANT it started getting treated like a market. As long as the US treats housing as a commodity instead of a human right, there will be a housing crisis. The market likes it. Sorry to be a downer.
This is the (a) truth.

In my neighborhood, I'm fairly certain most current owners balk at new housing because they (irrational) fear (consciously or unconsciously) that new housing will reduce the market demand and price for their house. They worry about this because...they treat the house as a retirement fund, they have extensive debt obligations underwritten by the 'value', etc, etc.
 
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Yes. How many people do you see sleeping on road shoulders and under bridges?

Do you think those ones just made bad decisions and deserve to suffer?
 
Yes. How many people do you see sleeping on road shoulders and under bridges?

Do you think those ones just made bad decisions and deserve to suffer?
I don't think that. I wasn't able to look at this thread until just now and I think a lot of you guys are making unfair assumptions about what I believe.

This is the (a) truth.

In my neighborhood, I'm fairly certain most current owners balk at new housing because they (irrationally) fear (consciously or unconsciously) that new housing will reduce the market demand and price for their house. They worry about this because...they treat the house as a retirement fund, they have extensive debt obligations underwritten by the 'value', etc, etc.
I was just at a city planning commission meeting where a new apartment complex was up for consideration. The NIMBY comments repeatedly mentioned that the 'property value of their homes is going to plummet', yet multiple commissioners corrected them by saying that property values have always consistently risen in this community. There seems to be a weird idea that tons of people have that any new multifamily housing will tank the value of their home. I can't imagine this is ever true except maybe in areas where stuff like homeless supportive housing is being built, but how many of those places are near single family homes?

You say this, but you don't say how zoning and other related regulations actually choke the supply. Seems to me you need to learn a thing a two about how markets really work, especially the unique qualities of land and real estate, but as a libertarian, I suppose it is easier for you to blame regulatory involvement as opposed to inherent flaws in the market system. Note, saying you are a NIMBY does not in any way inoculate you here on these boards from us government working types, the bête noire du jour of the anti-regulatory zeitgeist of which we are already keenly aware, even more so since January 20. Don't get me wrong, there are indeed a lot of fairy-dust-thinkers in the planning field, they are but a subset of a diverse ideological spectrum from all walks of life, and in various planning circles, I have observed there is indeed a gap in critical and creative thinking. Will that be your future self? In closing, I do kindly suggest that you suck on a gummy or two in the hopes that you sincerely want to expand your horizons and understanding of the planning profession.
Again, I think you're making uncharitable assumptions about what I believe. I'm seeing "go read a book" and "I'm a real planner, you're not" here - which are pretty unhelpful things to say. Other people at least had more explanatory, constructive comments in this thread. This type of thing just reinforces my skepticism of mainstream public planning.

M. Nolan Gray is a planner by training. He pretty strongly believes we need to deregulate to make housing more affordable. And there's certainly a lot of empirical support for that. So I'm curious what you think about that.
 
There is a lot to this discussion to unpack but there needs to be a few foundational elements.

Supply and Demand: A shortage is only created when the supply outpaces demand. In many growing urban areas, this is without question the case. In some declining urban areas, this is also the case as housing quality is deteriorating faster than renovations can be made. In other places, there is an abundance of housing, but no one wants to live there so prices are much lower than the cost of construction.

Housing Type: The concept of a "family" being the primary housing need is dying a very fast death. In 1960 only 13% of all homes were classified as "single-person" and now that is almost two-thirds (29%). It is expected to exceed 50% by 2040, and 1 & 2 person households is expected to exceed 50% by 2030. The space we need for these homes is changing, which creates opportunities and challenges.

Building & Fire Code: It is easy to blame zoning and land use regulations, but they are not the only factors in this mix. Both building and fire code dictate how a building needs to be constructed in terms of the number of stairwells, access, and such. Some places like Dallas are expanding the options for up to 8 units with a single stairwell.

Affordable & Workforce Housing: This metric is not locked in stone for the entire country. For example I worked in a community that if you used that community's median family income numbers, you could not afford to build a structure that meets even minimum standards. When you looked at the MSA median income, it was substantially higher, but the wages in the community were often not high enough to cover the cost of rent. Community that I am in now is the top of the MSA.

Expectations: In the 1950's the average size of a single family detached home was 983 square feet and the persons per dwelling was averaged at 3.0 persons. By 2020 the average was 2,272 square feet but the persons per dwelling dropped to 2.5 persons

So yea... we have a crisis. Popular areas have more people moving there than they have dwellings, and their expectations are different. Builders are trying to keep up, but it is not always what the occupants want or can afford. Finally, limitations outside of just downing are also limiting what builders can construct. Come communities are allowing for ADU's by right, which is not a new concept. Look at carriage houses in pre-car communities.

So what do we do about it. First is to promote, or require, mixed product neighborhoods, preferably also mixed use. Having neighborhoods that have a wide range of housing options that include everything from studio apartments and Town Homes to large lot with everything in between creates multigenerational and mixed income neighborhoods. Another is to rethink how we use existing housing stock. Many large mansions in many historic districts were broken into apartments. Perhaps the same should be done with your more typical single family detached homes today. If not apartments, then duplexes that are split once you enter the dwelling. That way visually the have the same appearance as before, and perhaps even the same occupancy in terms of number of persons. Finally, strategic in-fill development on large lot residentials. This goes beyond just ADU's but actually subdividing the land where possible and allowing for additional dwellings to be built.

I think Gray's book Arbitrary Lines is a must read, and while in theory, it makes sense. But when you start implementing variables into the mix it can get messy. In high demand areas, developers will respond with product as fast as they can to fully capitalize on the market boom. This often means lower quality at a higher cost.

Finally, there is Politics. None of anything I typed above this matter if the politics of a community don't support it. That takes time, education, and good plans that can be implemented in a incremental progression.
 
I think the best identifier is "affordable" housing crisis. Plenty of housing, just not enough affordable housing. Co-worker is moving to Missouri and taking a building inspector job to get away from the congestion and people of this location. He is buying a house ~20 years old on 5 acres with a bass pond all for the price a townhome sells for here.
 
This came across a google alerts feed that I have and thought it was interesting.


Essentially, it says we (local government) is the issue because they can't build homes fast enough to meet demand. On one had, I think there might be some truth to that. If you look at the APA Housing Accelerator Playbook, it provides a really good case to open the doors to not just more housing, but more types of housing than just the typical large lot single family detached dwelling.
 
This came across a google alerts feed that I have and thought it was interesting.


Essentially, it says we (local government) is the issue because they can't build homes fast enough to meet demand. On one had, I think there might be some truth to that. If you look at the APA Housing Accelerator Playbook, it provides a really good case to open the doors to not just more housing, but more types of housing than just the typical large lot single family detached dwelling.
That might be part of the problem but certainly not the only problem. I've not experienced this but have heard stories of development in California which can takes years to get approval. The state legislature here a few years ago did speed up the approval process somewhat by removing the council as the land use authority of preliminary plats of single, duplex, and townhome development. But those are out of the range of affordability for many so I see as having little impact. Towns have come down in price and I now see a few listed at "starting in the $300s" which is really not affordable and surely means the high 300s. Another can be not enough competent contractors to do the work or availability of construction materials. I'm sure there are other factors.
 
This came across a google alerts feed that I have and thought it was interesting.


Essentially, it says we (local government) is the issue because they can't build homes fast enough to meet demand. On one had, I think there might be some truth to that. If you look at the APA Housing Accelerator Playbook, it provides a really good case to open the doors to not just more housing, but more types of housing than just the typical large lot single family detached dwelling.
I think most of these articles are propaganda where home builders, realtors, and others like to throw blame at government because its easy. Look at the regulations they cite.

"Time is money in real estate," he said. "You own the land, you’re paying taxes and, while you wait for local approvals, costs keep rising. Then many communities require developers to install sewer, water, roads and electrical infrastructure and all of that gets folded into the final price of the home."

The only regulations they cite are making them install sewer, water, roads, and electrical infrastructure. Those are regulations, that's required infrastructure. Yes, if my city allowed it I'm sure that someone would build massive mobile home parks on septic systems with dirt roads, poor grading, and no stormwater control. I'm also pretty sure if I reduced our regulations, the developers and home builders would maintain their prices and pull as much profit out of the projects because: capitalism.

Development costs money. Government shouldn't have unnecessary regulations, but I really don't think de-regulation is the solution in most places.
 
According to Forbes in September 2025, the median home price by state. I may just retire back to Iowa.

Alabama$295,500
Alaska$422,600
Arizona$466,500
Arkansas$270,200
California$906,500
Colorado$671,100
Connecticut$523,600
Delaware$392,200
Florida$436,600
Georgia$398,400
Hawaii$957,800
Idaho$505,300
Illinois$322,700
Indiana$279,300
Iowa$255,200
Kansas$311,500
Kentucky$282,800
Louisiana$263,200
Maine$396,400
Maryland$552,300
Massachusetts$702,400
Michigan$290,200
Minnesota$389,300
Mississippi$264,900
Missouri$291,200
Montana$538,300
Nebraska$314,800
Nevada$500,700
New Hampshire$541,400
New Jersey$575,000
New Mexico$353,400
New York$586,400
North Carolina$403,700
Ohio$276,900
Oklahoma$260,400
Oregon$543,600
Pennsylvania$340,200
Rhode Island$528,600
South Carolina$410,100
South Dakota$344,700
Tennessee$412,600
Texas$353,700
Utah$636,400
Vermont$459,400
Virginia$499,400
Washington$690,100
Washington, D.C.$1,360,000
West Virginia$253,100
Wisconsin$350,000
 
According to Forbes in September 2025, the median home price by state. I may just retire back to Iowa.

(SNIP)

I am fascinated by the differences across the country and sometimes between two communities next door to each other. When you look at VA as an example, it says $499,400 and DC is $1,360,000. But you know darn well that the homes in VA close to DC are closer to the DC median than the VA median.
 
I am fascinated by the differences across the country and sometimes between two communities next door to each other. When you look at VA as an example, it says $499,400 and DC is $1,360,000. But you know darn well that the homes in VA close to DC are closer to the DC median than the VA median.
But the sample from which the median is derived is much, much, much, muuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuch larger for the State of Virginia than the District of Columbia.
 
That might be part of the problem but certainly not the only problem. I've not experienced this but have heard stories of development in California which can takes years to get approval. The state legislature here a few years ago did speed up the approval process somewhat by removing the council as the land use authority of preliminary plats of single, duplex, and townhome development. But those are out of the range of affordability for many so I see as having little impact. Towns have come down in price and I now see a few listed at "starting in the $300s" which is really not affordable and surely means the high 300s. Another can be not enough competent contractors to do the work or availability of construction materials. I'm sure there are other factors.
My problem is that they take the longer California regulation process and apply it everywhere else. Like Ohhh these regulations are just slowing us down. Nope, that's just California and maybe Oregon. And of course like Bureaucrat said...Ohhh, I have to install water and sewer and build streets on this empty lot.

I'm getting more annoyed by the design standards creep. Can we do a 20' lot please? Give them that and they crunch it down to 18'. Our streets must be at least 29.1' wide. Can we do a 26' street with only 4' sidewalks instead of 5 and we don't want detached sidewalks. I agree that we need to update to meet modern housing products, but once we do the creep sets in and that damn city needs to reduce the street to 12' and no sidewalk and...
 
But the sample from which the median is derived is much, much, much, muuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuch larger for the State of Virginia than the District of Columbia.

Correct.

Which raises the question of the differences across VA. Sure, in some cases it is just size, fit, and finishes, but the location variable is also a significant factor as well.

For new construction, materials and labor can also be wildly different within a geography as well. But is living in DC that much better than Richmond, Lynchburg, Charlottesville, Blacksburg, or Roanoke?
 
But is living in DC that much better than Richmond, Lynchburg, Charlottesville, Blacksburg, or Roanoke?
It must be because the market sales/values indicate such.

VA also has alot of 'places people don't really want to live', I'm sure.

Similar as to why a Lake Huron fronting (livable but fixer-upper) big house in-town in Alpena, MI sits on the market for $649,000 whereas the equivalent in Harbor Springs, MI or Traverse City, MI will be at least double the 'value' for just the land.
 
It must be because the market sales/values indicate such.

VA also has alot of 'places people don't really want to live', I'm sure.

Similar as to why a Lake Huron fronting (livable but fixer-upper) big house in-town in Alpena, MI sits on the market for $649,000 whereas the equivalent in Harbor Springs, MI or Traverse City, MI will be at least double the 'value' for just the land.

I have driven through some of those communities in VA... not sure if you want to stop for gas...

Hey, I get it. I could sell my house here in the Mid South and buy something much larger and grander in my home town with frontage on Lake Michigan. But the cost of the divorce would off set any other potential upside because there is zero chance that my wife is going to want to deal with UP winters. There are parts of Kalamazoo where you can get a historic house (3 bed 2 bath) for under $30,000... same house in parts of TC would be 20X that amount.
 
My problem is that they take the longer California regulation process and apply it everywhere else. Like Ohhh these regulations are just slowing us down. Nope, that's just California and maybe Oregon. And of course like Bureaucrat said...Ohhh, I have to install water and sewer and build streets on this empty lot.

I'm getting more annoyed by the design standards creep. Can we do a 20' lot please? Give them that and they crunch it down to 18'. Our streets must be at least 29.1' wide. Can we do a 26' street with only 4' sidewalks instead of 5 and we don't want detached sidewalks. I agree that we need to update to meet modern housing products, but once we do the creep sets in and that damn city needs to reduce the street to 12' and no sidewalk and...
That's funny. I have someone this month trying to divide a property between to very old roads. One right-of-way is 30 ft wide with 20 ft of asphalt. The other row is 20 ft wide with 12 ft of asphalt. I keep asking the "developer" how they expect us to get trash trucks, fire trucks and two way traffic down a 12 ft street. There are no space for utilities.

They bought about 20 homes on the streets adjacent. They've taken what were 800-1000 ft homes built in the 40s and not well maintained and made them two or three unit buildings without any real zoning approval. They are affordable $600-800 per month for 300-400 sq ft units. None of them would pass a HUD inspection and about every 3 years a body is found at the deadend of the street in the masses of kudzu.
 
VA also has alot of 'places people don't really want to live', I'm sure.
Its been years, but the areas on I-81 around Bristol were not high on my list for a new home. Beautiful natural environment, built environment was much less impressive. I'm sure by now some enterprising developers are making mountain homes starting in the $800K.
 
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